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March 23, 2005

Power Laws, Long Tails, and Social Change

Ok, so I do recognize that the power law and long tail are more descriptive than prescriptive in their abilities to determine how social networks move. And I also recognize that paying attention to these explanatory models can help change our ways of thinking about the world; even though they may not allow us to predict definite change. In other words, if we can begin to respect and acknowledge the long tail we can sell more items by just putting all the diversity out there, but we can never know or change which items will be at the top of the power law curve (the most popular) from the outset. With all of that said, I still want to push these models a bit further to help understand how particular ideas or beliefs in the social take on more significance than others. And if we can use these models to figure that out, will it ever be possible to begin to sway public opinion?

It seems as if iTunes and Amazon, according to Anderson, have done just that. By offering everything (which iTunes does not -- BTW -- try to find obscure '80s British or Canadian pop and you're out of luck!) these companies make more money, but as both Anderson and Derekmention it is not only through the commitment to the long tail that these companies have been successful, but it is through their ability to recommend, link, and connect one song with another based on affinity that sweetens the pot. So, then iTunes and Amazon are finding ways to use power law and small world models together to produce profit.

So far, so good. But then Huberman quickly reminds us:

while economic outcomes are the result of actions by people, they do not necessarily reflect their intentions (22).

Then iTunes can only create links between Beck and Matador at 15 because customers have purchased both, not because there is any inherent link between the artist and the album. This is not shady or even a poor representation of what is going on with purchasing music, but I wonder how useful this model is for explaining how public opinion changes and circulates.

Often liberals are stunned at the inherent contradictions present in the right's agenda, as is the right with the liberals agenda. And there are voices, or clusters, on each side that are infinitely more popular than radical or even moderate sites/blogs on both sides. So if we were to use power laws and small world clusters to predict changes in political climate and belief, could it be done on a mass scale. I am skeptical that it could only show us coronations and that then both sides would come up with their stories to fill in the blanks, so that we wouldn't make much progress on either side. (Ah, the database versus the narrative rears its ugly head again.) So, maybe what this line of questioning is really showing me is that I need understand better what the use value of these models are, and pushing them into predictive and prescriptive modes is really my own need to change the world. And then that's the beauty of the power law -- it could help me devise a strategy to change public opinion, but at the same time it could be helping someone diametrically opposed to me.

And then we are back to linking, clustering, and who is reading who to see the relative success and/or failures of this change.

Posted by jlwingar at March 23, 2005 12:29 PM

Comments

I'm interested in the way you're taking up the problem of social change through the network, here and in your response to Derek's post. I chipped in some ideas about this in my comment there.

Posted by: hj at March 23, 2005 10:50 PM